一种城市火灾损失预测评估方法

A pre-assessment method for city fire losses

按照提出的基于宏观经济指标(国民生产总值GDP和人口资料)进行火灾损失预测评估的方法和根据河北省1980-1997年间发生火灾的资料分析而建立的GDP火灾损失率与火灾风险指数的统计关系,通过把研究对象以50 m×50 m为单位划分网格,并根据网格格点的人口和研究对象的人均GDP值计算得到单元格点的GDP值,进而根据GDP火灾损失率和火灾风险指数的关系与火灾发生概率得到研究对象预测的火灾损失估值。提出的方法采用易于更新和获取的社会经济数据作为火灾损失的分析基础,可方便地用于没有详细的各类设施分类数据的区域进行火灾损失预测;对于经济发展快速的城市,该方法容易通过社会经济数据的及时搜集和更新得到新的火灾损失预测结果。

A kind of pre-assessment method of fire losses based on macroscopic economic indicator is presented. By analyzing fire data of Hebei province from 1980 to 1997, a statistical relationship is established between GDP fire losses ratio and fire risk index number. By dividing the research target into the grid of 50 m× 50 m, the GDPs value of unit grid can be calculated on the basis of unit grid population and per capita GDP＇s value of the research target, and then the predicted fire losses value of research target is obtained on the basis of relationship between GDP fire loss ratio and the fire risk index number and the fire probability. The analysis of the fire losses is based on easily gained, renewable and updatable community economy data, thus the method proposed is conveniently used in areas without detailed classification data to carry on the fire losses prediction. As to the fast developing cities, it is easy to obtain the predicted value of fire losses by collecting and updating the community economy data.