摘要
基于安徽省1949—2003年的洪旱灾害统计资料,运用分形理论重构了其嵌入相空间序列,探讨了其时序的分形特征,计算出了分维数。研究表明,洪旱灾害受灾面积的时序分布具有分形特征。相应的饱和分维数分别为d=2.56和d=3.55。饱和关联维数对应的嵌入空间的最小维数为8.0。Hurst分析结果显示,20世纪80年代以来安徽省洪旱灾害受灾面积呈扩大态势。该研究结果可为建立洪旱灾害受灾面积的时序预测预报模型提供依据。
Fractal theory was used to rebuild the embed special dimension serials based on the statistical data of flood and drought damage occurred in Anhui Province from 1949-2003. The time serials was discussed and the fractal dimension was computed. The results indicate that time serials of the flood and drought area has fractal feature. The stable fractal dimension is 2.56 and 3.55. The corresponding minimize dimension of the stable relationship is 8.0. Hurst analysis results indicate that the areas of flood and drought are due to rapidly increase after 1980. The result can provide a base research to build the forecast model of the flood and drought damaged area.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第6期73-77,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
安徽省重点项目(00021087)
安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目(2002KJ135ZD)
关键词
洪旱灾害
分形
时间序列
安徽省
flood and drought damage
fractal dimension
time serial
Anhui Province
