基于活动地块边界带的加卸载响应比参数对海城地震中短期预测的应用

PREDICTION APPLICATION OF HAICHENG M_S7.3 EARTHQUAKE IN MID-SHORT TERM USING PARAMETERS(Y) OF RESPONSE RATE OF LOADING AND UNLOADING BESED ON ACTIVE TECTONIC BLOCK BOUNDARY ZONES

地震构造是强震发生的必要基础,强震的孕育和发生与构造密切相关。强震的孕育和发生不仅与震中周围构造有关,而且与孕震区所在的整个构造带有关。这就表明整个构造带的地震活动性与未来强震都有关联,因此,我们在做测震学参数异常预测地震时,必须考虑整个构造带的地震活动。过去我们常以震中周围地区的地震活动资料来做测震学参数的异常分析,可能会丢失部分信息。本文进行了地震构造分区和构造单元的划分,把加卸载响应比参数和张家口-渤海边界带有机结合,对基于活动地块边界带的加卸载响应比参数在海城地震预测中的应用进行了研究,结果预测效果很好。这种方法对边界带的地震危险性判定有某种参考价值。

Seismic tectonics is a necessary basis of strong earthquake occurring, and conceiving and occurring of strong earthquake are closely related with tectonics. Conceiving and occurring of strong earthquake are closely related not only with tectonic area of epicenter but aim with whole tectonic zone. That is to say seismicity of whole zone is related with future earthquake, so when we predicate by using seismometry parmeters we must consider seismicity problem from whole zone. We used to analyze anomaly of seimometry parameters calculated by the area of epicenter. It is possible to lose anomaly information. Author, in this paper, makes division of active tectonic- block region and tectonic- unit, and sets a good example of combining parameter （Y） with boundary Zone of Zhangjiakou -Bohai Sea, in order to investigate Haicheng earthquake prediction by parameter （Y） based on active tectonic block boundary zone. It is found that the result is better correlated with this strong earthquake. This work has a certain reference value for predicting earthquake of active block boundary zone.