中国的通货膨胀率与GDP增长率关系的实证研究

An empirical research on the inflation and GDP growth of China

通胀率与失业率之间存在着高度的相关性已经是不容置疑的结论了,然而,通胀率与GDP增长率之间又存在怎样的相关性呢?本文通过对中国近24年来的经济数据的分析,先从总体上对通胀率与GDP增长率随时间的变化进行曲线拟合和比较,然后通过建立其数学模型,并对模型进行不断修正,最终得到能通过统计学上的各项检验的三次回归模型。然后又给出了通胀率的自回归模型,用其预测结果与三次模型的预测结果比较,进一步证明所得三次模型的可靠性。最终,笔者得出的结论是:通货膨胀率与GDP增长率之间存在着三次回归模型的非线性关系,但它们之间的变化趋势是同方向的,且通胀率的变化总滞后于GDP增长率,因此,通货膨胀率的变化方向是可以由GDP增长率来预测的。

It is well known that Phillips＇ Curve has shown significant correlation between inflation and unemployment. However, does GDP growth have any effect on inflation. In this paper, we analyzed the data from 1980 to 2003 of China, and used SAS 8. X to seek the regressive models with single, quadratic and cubic regressor. Comparing the results, we find that the cubic model can fit the data well, it has a significant t-value and regression R-square, the residua and independent variable arc homoskedastic. And then, we give the autoregressivc model of inflation, forecasting the inflation and compare the result with the cubic model. Finally, we conclude that inflation and GDP growth have a similar changing trend, and the inflation can be forecasted from the past data.