摘要
根据大气环流模型(GCMs)输出的未来气候变化情景,结合历史资料的诊断分析,应用建立的流域水文模型及水资源利用综合评价模型,研究了气候变化对京津唐地区水资源数量和时空变化的影响。在地区未来经济发展及部门用水量预测的基础上,分析了气候变化对供水、需水和部门缺水的影响以及经济损失。
The effect of global climate change on water resources of Jing-Jin-Tang region in North China was studied using basin hydrological model and the compre- hensive evaluation model for the water resources utilization of the region, diagnos- tic analysis of historic data was made and the GCMs output of climate change sce- narios in the future was adopted. The study includes the impact of climate change on water resources quantity and its temporal and spatial variation and on water sup- ply, water demand and sectoral water deficit in the region. The possible economic loss due to climate change impact was estimated.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1996年第1期26-36,共11页
Advances in Water Science
基金
"八五"国家重点科技攻关项目(85-913-03-03)
关键词
水资源
气候变化
供需平衡
京津唐地区
climate change
water resources
impact evaluation
adaptation strategy
Jing-Jin-Tang
