人民币汇率改革应该控制速度与强度——从我国货币替代问题出发的行为经济学分析

Control RMB Exchange Rate Reform Properly: A Behavioral Economics Analysis Based on Currency Substitution in China

根据行为经济学的基本理论以及相应的实证分析,发现当前我国居民由于损失规避心理较强,因而在决定是否进行货币替代时,对人民币实际汇率的绝对水平反应不足,但对人民币实际汇率的波动程度反应敏感。故人民币汇率制度从盯住单一美元过渡到盯住一篮子货币后,为了防范由货币替代的潜在加剧而造成对宏观经济的冲击,政策当局应该做到:短期内不应对人民币币值进行大幅度或频繁的调整,同时必须维持当前汇率政策的延续性;长期内必须完善国内市场化环境,不断缓解居民的损失规避心理,培育和提升居民对汇率制度改革的应变能力。

Based on behavioral economics, We find that in recent China, when people decide to hold certain foreign currency instead of RMB, they do not regard much to the absolute degree of the RMB exchange rate, yet often overreact to the fluctuation of the exchange rate due to the possible losing. It is reasonable then to keep a stable RMB value to avoid speeding up the currency substitution rate. To achieve this target, in the short term it is not fit to change the RMB exchange rate frequently or drastically, while in the long ran, it is necessary to perfect the related institutions and a well balanced investment environment. Only in this way, it is hopeful to untangle people＇ s fear of losing and improve their ability and rationality of decision - making.