人口增长与经济发展相互作用机制及实证分析——基于水平VAR的Granger因果分析方法和协整技术

Mathematical Analysis of the Interactive Mechanism Between Population Growth and Economic development——An Granger Cause-effective Analysis and Co-integration Method Based on Level VAR Model

本文首先分析了人口数量与经济发展相互作用机制,从环境承载力角度分析了一定数量的人口是经济发展的必要条件,而当社会生产力发展到在特定空间内相对稳定时,若不断增长的人口数量超过社会经济发展的需求与承受能力,这时经济发展就要受到人口增长的困扰。其次本论文运用Granger因果分析方法和协整技术研究了中国人口增长率与经济发展水平之间相互作用数量关系。结果为:在短期内,在5%的显著性水平下,人口增长率对经济发展水平没有显著影响,而经济发展水平却对人口增长率有显著影响;从长期看,人口增长率与经济发展水平之间具有显著的负相关关系。最后得出结论:只有控制人口增长(尤其是农村人口增长),才能促进经济发展;而只有促进经济发展,才能更好的控制人口增长,两者相辅相成。

This paper firstly theoretically reviews the interactive mechanism between population growth rate and economical development in the perspective of eco - environment carry capacity and the demonstration of that a proper size of population is the basic condition of economic development in a given region while the too much faster increasing of population than： the demand and affordance of economic development will harass the economic development. To empirically demonstrate this interactive mechanism, this paper use the Granger Cause- effective Analysis and Co- integration method based on Level VAR model to study the interaction between China＇s economic development and population growth. The result shows in short time and under 5% （sig）, population growth rate doesn＇ t have evident effects on economic development while the economic development has evident effects on population growth; in the long run, population growth rate and economic development have an evident negative correlate interaction. Thus it is clear to China the control of population growth rate especially the rural population growth is important to the economic development and vice versa.