摘要
在分析国内外铁路货运需求增长模型的基础上,提出铁路货运需求增长过程的4阶段划分理论,结合云南铁路发展滞后的现状,建立了消除铁路货运能力限制的货运量增长模型。通过对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量的计算,应用MATLAB仿真技术验证了模型的正确性,并对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量进行了预测。
Based on an analysis to the increasing model of railway freight transport demand in domestic and foreign countries, the paper puts forward a four-stage evolution theory for railway freight transport demand. Combining with the actual status of the lagging development in Yunnan railways, the paper establishes the freight transport increasing model that overcomes the limit of railway freight transport capacity. By calculating the freight transport volume as well as the demand, via MATLAB simulation technology, it validates the model and carries out the forecast to the freight transport volume and demand for Yunnan railways.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2006年第1期81-83,共3页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(K04Z03)
关键词
云南铁路
货运量
货运需求量
模型
预测
Yunnan railways
freight transport volume
freight transport demand
model
forecast
