关于人民币双重压力缓解和汇制改革的思考

Research on Alleviating Double Pressure of RMB Exchange Rate and Reforming Exchange Rate Regime

分别从内外两个角度分析了目前的经济形势,得出了人民币面临着双重压力———既有升值的外在压力又有贬值的内在要求这一结论。根据这一结论,提出了缓解双重压力的措施,即保持人民币汇率稳定的对外缓解升值压力,对内扩大内需;接着,提出了人民币汇率制度改革的方向:短期,继续维持人民币汇率基本稳定;中期,改钉住汇率制度为汇率目标区制度;长期,退出汇率目标区制度,实行浮动汇率制。

By analyzing the current economic situation from domestic and international aspects respectively, the paper draws the conclusion that RMB exchange rate has exterior pressure of revaluation and interior requirement of devaluation. It presents the measures of alleviating double pressure of RMB exchange rate keeping RMB exchange rate steady while alleviating exterior pressure of revaluation and expand domestic demand to impel the exchange rate to the balanced level. RMB exchange rate reform, in short- term, should continue to maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate, in medium- term, change pegging exchange rate system to exchange rate target - zone system and in long - term, change exchange rate target - zone system to floating exchange rate system.