中国上市公司股利支付水平实证研究

Empirical Research on Average Dividend of China's Listed Companies

针对现金股利支付水平问题,基于代理成本理论,提出了6项假设,运用最小二乘法构建了多元回归模型;利用STEPW ISE回归分析,对2001—2003年我国1 885家上市公司现金股利支付水平的影响因素进行了动态检验.在移入概率小于等于0.05,移出概率大于等于0.10时,有6个变量通过了检验.结果表明:每年现金股利政策的影响因素有显著不同的特点,财务风险、管理层可支配现金流对现金股利支付水平有重要影响,股权集中度、股本规模对现金股利支付水平有一定程度的影响,而股权流动性并不影响现金股利支付水平.

On the basis of the Agency Theory, six hypotheses were proposed. Using method of least squares a regression model was set up. The influencing factors of the cash dividends level of 1 885 China Listed Companies from 2001 to 2003 were tested dynamically by use of STEPWISE regression analysis. Six variables passed the test when immigrant probability is less than or equivalent to 0. 05 and emigrant probability is more than or equivalent to 0. 10. The results show that there are differences in the remarkable characteristics of annual cash dividends policy; the cash dividend average is significantly influenced by financial risk and available cash flow of management, and is influenced by degree of concentration of stock right and size of capital stock in a certain extent, as well as is not influenced by the flexibility of stock right.