新疆的水资源可利用量及其承载能力分析

Analysis on the Volume of Available Water Resources and Its Carrying Capacity in Xinjiang, China

把新疆划分为伊犁河—额尔齐斯河外流区、准噶尔盆地—天山北坡经济区、塔里木盆地-塔里木河流域区和吐哈盆地诸小河流域区等4个水资源分区。系统分析估算了各分区的水资源总量、水资源可利用量以及水资源的利用现状、水资源的潜力及其承载能力,并参考已有研究结果进行了评述。新疆社会经济可利用的水资源量为598.96×108m3,新疆生态需水量为229.31×108m3;在建立节水型社会后,可以满足新疆社会经济、生态的需水。到2050年人均GDP81697.49元时,可承载的人口规模不低于3 250.8×104人。

In order to analyze the available water resources and its carrying capacity, Xinjiang is divided into 4 water resources districts including the Yili River-Ertix River outflow watershed, Junggar Basin--northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains economic zone, Tarim Basin--Tarim River Watershed and Turpan-Hami Basin. The total volumes of water resources and the volumes of available water resources in all the districts are estimated, the utilization statuses, potentialities and carrying capacities of water resources in these districts are analyzed, and the available achievements in water resources research are discussed. The main conclusions are as follows： （1） The total volume of water resources and the volume of available water resources in Xinjiang are 8.818 1 × 10^10 m^3 5.989 6×10^10 m^3 respectively, and the volume of ecological water requirement in Xinjiang in the year of 2050 will be 2.293 1 × 10^10 m^3. The calculated results water resources during the different periods reveal that the volume of water resources in Xinjiang is stable. However, the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources is not uniform. （2） The sustainable social and economic development in Xinjiang can be supported by water resources. The population carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang will be 3.250 8× 10^7 persons in 2050 when per capita GDP is up to 81 697.49 Chinese Yuan. （3） There is a great potential capacity of water resources in Xinjiang, which includes the water-saving irrigation, exploitation and utilization of groundwater, and construction of diversion works in the Yili River and Ertix River watersheds. The potential capacity of water resources is the highest in the Yili River--Ertix River outflow watershed but the lowest in the Turpan-Hami Basin.