蚕豆蚜发生区域趋势预测研究

A STUDY ON THE OCCURRENCE RANGE TRENDPREDICTION OF BROAD BEAN APHIDS

蚕豆蚜为豆蚜ＭｐｈｉｓｃｒａｃｃｉｖｏｒａＫｏｃｈ、豌豆蚜Ａｃｙｒｔｈｏｓｉｐｈｏｍｐｉｓｕｍ（Ｈａｒｒｉｓ）豌豆修尾蚜Ｍｅｇｏｕｒａｊａｐｏｎｉｃａ的混合种群，其发生程序用轻、中、重、中偏轻、中偏重５个级别进行描述。在蚕豆生长的季节里，一定区域内，同一发生程度年度间存在着明显的重复性。据此选用“模糊优先比”作为蚕豆蚜发生区域趋势预测的基本方法。用与发生程度密切相关，并具有先兆性的７个因子，对翌年蚕豆蚜发生趋势进行预测。经１９９３～１９９５连续３年应用，预测与实况均相符，较好地解决了蚕豆蚜危害的长期预报问题。

The broad beau aphids is a mixed population consisting of aphids craccivora Koch,Acyrfhosiphon pisum(Harris)and Megoura japonica(Matsumura).Extent of its incidence is described with 5 grades,i.e., slight,moderate,heavy,moderateand moderate￣+.During the broad beau growing season, there is obvious repeatedness of the aphid occurrence in a certain area among years.Because of this,the'fuzzy preference ratio'is chosen as a basic method for prediction of the range trend of broad beau aphid occurrence.Seven prediction factors that closely correlate with the incidence of the pest and have omenous characters are used to predict occurrence trend for the next year.From 1993 to 1995.the method has successively been used for 3 years with the predictions.And a comparatively satisfactory solution of the problem concerning long-term prediction of broad beau aphid occurrence has thus come into ekistence.