长江未来水质污染的时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis of Future Water Pollution in Yangtze River

根据1995～2004年长江流域水质报告给出的主要统计数据，对长江未来10年水质污染的发展趋势用时间序列分析模型进行了预测分析（似如不采取有效治理措施）．预测结果令人触目惊心：长江水文年全流一类水质、三类水质的百分比呈明显下降趋势；四类水质、五类水质和劣类水质的百分比呈严重上升趋势．10年后，长江全流劣类水质的百分比上升到可怕的程度．如不采取有效措施，长江将彻底癌变．

To help realize the imperativeness of saving Yangtze River, the paper describes a Time Series Analysis made to predict the consequence of water pollution in the fiver （if there is no favourable control measurement）. The analysis is done on the basis of statistics reported from 199,5 to 2004. The result shows that the percentage of the fourth/fifth class of water and bad water will be on drastic rise in ten years time. With no effective treatment, Yangtze River water will be completely deteriorating.