汇率浮动后的资本管制策略

The Capital Control Tactics after the Float of the Exchange Rate

将资本因素引入供给函数,并考虑到外汇市场微观结构,可以构建一个弹性汇率制和资本有限流动下的宏观经济模型。模型分析显示:投资性资本管制放松会增大国际收支逆差和国内商品市场超额供给的矫正难度,投机性资本管制放松会增大外部失衡的矫正难度;弹性汇率制下,利率平价机制作用使国际市场利率变化的经济冲击随资本管制度降低而增强,更易发生汇率超调。由此引申的政策建议是,人民币汇率浮动化后,资本项目开放必须更加审慎,要适时进行外汇干预,保持国内外利率的动态一致,以防范资本盲目流动引发汇率超调、金融危机和经济动荡。

For drawing the capital factor into the supplying function and considering the microcosmic structure of the exchange market, a springy exchange rate system and a macrocosmic economic model under the limited capital float condition may be set up, Model analysis shows that relaxation of the control of investment capital will increase the unfavorable balance of international payments and the correcting difficuhy of the excess commodity supply in the market at home; relaxation of speculative capital control will increase the correcting difficulty for outer unbalance; under the springy exchange rate system, the action of fair mechanism of intet＇est rate will make the economic shock of the international market interest rate increase with the decrease of the capital control system, thus the over regulation of exchange rate will easily happen, Therefore the suggestion with regard to concemed policy is： after the float of RMB exchange rate, much attention should be paid to the open of capital items; it is necessary to interfere exchange in time, keep the agreement of the trend of the interest rate both at home and abroad, so as to guard against exchange rate over regulation resulted from the aimless capital float and against finance crisis and economy unrest.