腐蚀条件下管段关联性对管线失效评估的影响

Effect of Pipe Segment Relationship to Pipeline Failure Appraisal Under Corrosion Condition

为了对管道进行完整性管理,需要对管道在腐蚀情况下的失效压力进行计算或预测,而影响失效压力的诸多因素中就包括管段的空间关联性。提出了计算关联系数的方法,同时分析了管段关联系数对管道的整体失效可能性评估的影响。结合实例,利用蒙特卡罗模拟法,用所提出的方法在某管线进行了具体应用,并对结果进行了分析和讨论。结果表明:与那些没有考虑到腐蚀管线的管段关联性的评估结果相比,结合管段关联性的方法在对管线失效可能性评估的准确度上可以提高近30%。

It demands to calculate or forecast the failure stress of pipeline under corrosion conditions to integrity control to pipeline.However,a good many factors of effect failure stress includes room relationship of pipe segment.It puts forward method of calculating relationship factors and analyses effect of relationship factors of pipe segment to integrity failure possibility appraisal of pipeline.Finally combined with example,it analyses the result and discussion by using Monte Carlo simulation method and apply this method to certain pipeline.The results show that the method combined to pipe segment relationship can increase nearly 30% on the accuracy to pipeline failure possibility appraisal compared with those no consideration of appraisal result to pipe segment relationship of corrosion pipeline.