我国重特大火灾事故发展趋势预测

The Trend of the Catastrophic Fire Accidents in China

对我国1997-2004年8年问重特大火灾事故的发生起数、死亡人数、受伤人数和直接经济损失四项指标进行了统计分析，并使用灰系统理论对2005、2006年全国重特大火灾事故的四项指标进行了预测。分析结果表明，我国近8年来的特大火灾事故的发生起数、死亡人数和受伤人数总体呈下降趋势，而直接经济损失有上升趋势。灰理论预测结果表明，2005、2006年我国重特大火灾事故的四项指标都将呈下降趋势。针对分析和预测结果，提出了预防和控制全国重特大火灾事故的对策。

There are many catastrophic fire accidents in China every year that cause enormous losses. In order to efficiently prevent the occurrences of those fire accidents, this paper analyses the trends of the fire catastrophic accidents from 1997 to 2004 and uses Gray Theory to predict the four indexes of the catastrophic fire accidents in those years. The results show that the precision of the predict data is accurate. Therefore, the result of the prediction is credible. Based on the prediction indexes of the catastrophic fire accidents in next two years in China calculated by Gray Theory, some advice on the fire prevention for the future are proposed.