前景理论与中国开放式基金的实证检验

Prospect Theory and Empirical Studies On China Open-end Funds

前景理论的价值函数呈现S型,反映出投资者在盈利状态下倾向于先卖出证券,不愿意承担确定性风险,而在亏损状态下倾向于持有证券,更加倾向于承担不确定风险。经过实证分析,中国开放式基金也存在这一现象,即,开放式基金持有人在获利的情况下会先赎回该基金,并且,基金净值增长越快,其被赎回的比例越高;而持有人在亏损的情况下则倾向于继续持有该基金,去承担更多的不确定性风险。

The S movement of value function of prospect theory indicates that investors, when at profit, tend to lock up their profit by sells out, while hold their stocks to stand the risk of uncertainty, when at loss. Empirical studies reveal the same phenomenon in China open-ended funds, namely share holders tend to redeem their shares to lock up their gains. Meanwhile, rapid increase in net asset value usually sees higher percentage of redemption. While investors, at loss, tend to hold their shares to stand the risk of uncertainty.