采用统计矩法计算边坡的破坏概率

Computation of Failure Probability of Slope by Statistical Moment Method

本文视影响边坡滑移破坏的因素向摩擦角和凝聚力为随机变量，采用可靠性分析中的统计违法计算某边坡的破坏概率，并与其它几种方法相比较，结果较吻合，表明该方法用于分析边坡稳定性是可行的。文中同时讨论了内障擦角和凝聚力的统计分布类型，以及在地下水和地震作用下内摩擦角和凝聚力的变化规律和对边坡破坏概率的影响。

Internal friction angle and cohesion which lead to slope slip are regarded as random variables. Failure probability of the slope is computed by statistical moment method in reliability study. The results are consistent with other methods and show that the application of the method in slope stability study is feasible. Thestatistical distribution type of internal friction angle and cohesion is discussed. Meanwhile,changing regulations of internal friction angle and cohesion under the groundwater and earthquake and its impact on slopefailure probobility are presented.