“未富先老”与劳动力短缺

Labor Shortage in an Aging but not Affluent Society

计划生育政策的成功执行和社会经济的快速发展,中国在经济发展尚处较低水平的情况下,实现了人口转变过程,过早地迎来了人口老龄化,劳动力供给出现短缺的端倪。“先老”导致的劳动力供给下降与“未富”带来的大量劳动力需求,将可能形成比较优势的真空。这种趋势对现有的经济增长方式以及相应的就业和社会保障政策提出严峻挑战。为应对劳动力短缺的局面,保持中国经济发展的可持续性,应未雨绸缪,包括最大化开发人口红利、加大人力资本积累力度、选择可持续的养老保障模式,清除劳动力流动障碍、转变经济增长方式等。

Spurred by family-planning policy and socio-economic developments, China＇s demographic transition completed its stage with relatively low income, which results in early emergence of population aging and an inkling of labor shortage. The Chinese feature of becoming an aging but not affluent society may generate a gap for comparative advantage, challenging the present pattern of economic growth and social security system. By revealing the policy implications of the ongoing situation, the paper suggests to actively meet those challenges by taking full advantage of demographic dividend, investing more in human capital accumulation, adopting a sustainable pension system, removing institutional obstacles deterring labor mobility, and transforming growth pattern to be based on the enhanced productivity.