摘要
在对传统的NPV法分析的基础上,利用实物期权方法结合NPV法对风险投资项目进行投资决策。但是现有的风险投资项目实物期权方法均假定期望现金流现值和投资成本为确定值,而实际上由于风险投资项目的高不确定性,该假设是不现实的。因此本文假设期望现金流现值和投资成本为梯形模糊数,运用模糊实物期权方法计算风险投资项目的期权价值和投资延迟时间。
Based on the analysis of the tradition Net Present Value method, this paper introduces the real option theory in combination with the NPV method in the venture investment project decision. But existent research about the real option theory in the venture investment assumes that the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are crisp values. Actually, there is high uncertainty in venture investment, so this assumption is unpractical. Then they are assumed to be trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and the method of fuzzy real option is used to compute the option value and deferred time in the venture investment.
出处
《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》
2006年第1期60-62,75,共4页
Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70171004)
关键词
风险投资
期权定价
模糊数
模糊实物期权
延迟时间
venture capital
option pricing
fuzzy number
fuzzy real option
deferred time
