论完全弹性下的马歇尔—勒纳条件及其在中国的实证分析

Empirical Analyses on Marshall-Lerner Condition under Perfectly Elasticity in China

本文首先对马歇尔—勒纳条件进行了图解分析,继而在完全弹性条件下对其进行了数学证明,然后根据弹性公式计算年度进出口需求弹性,结果显示大多数年份我国实行人民币贬值的方法可以有效改善国际收支,说明我国出口商品的需求弹性远小于进口商品的需求弹性,我国实行人民币贬值导致的进口减少额将大于因贬值导致的出口增加额。此外,我国应建立更有弹性的汇率机制,充分顾及外部条件,防止“挤出效应”的发生。

This article has presented firstly Marshall Lemer condition, its diagrammatic and mathematical analyses and then got the demand elasticity of imports and exports every year by Elastic Expressions, which showed that RMB devaluation could improve the balance of payment effectively in most years. It has pointed out, to the demand elasticity, export was far less than import in China, the import decrement would be more than export increment, both caused by RMB devaluation. Furthermore, we should set up the more elastic exchange rate system, considering exterior condition enough, avoiding ＂extrusion effects＂.