中国石油需求模型研究

Study on China's Oil Demand Model

目前对石油需求量的预测有各种方法，多数模型在估计参数时使用的是石油实际消费量数据，但根据实际消费量建立的预测模型仅仅是对原数据的一种技术上的平滑，并不能真正测度需求量。为此，文章设计了一种算法，通过对影响需求量的因素进行分析来估算需求量，以估算的需求量来建立计量模型，预测未来需求量。并以1990-2003年的数据进行了实际计算，说明了该算法的可行性。

At present, there exist various methods of forecasting the Demand of Domestic Petroleum Volume. However, to estimate the parameters , most of these models are based on realistic consumption, which are just to make a technical smoothing for original data. So using these approaches to measure oil demand is unauthentic. To avoid the case, this paper designs a new method to estimate future demand of petroleum volume. Firstly, this paper analyses key factors that affect the demand of petroleum volume to estimate oil demand, then an econometrics model will be established on it. Secondly, this paper will illustrate feasibility of the new way by analyzing the data of China from 1990 to 2003.