中国经济周期的典型事实

Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in China

文章考察了1952-1999年间我国经济周期性波动的统计规律性，并从中概括出我国经济周期的典型事实。其结果表明：就经济波动的持久性、不同变量的相对波动程度和协同变动而言，我国经济周期性波动的特征与其他国家经济周期的典型事实基本一致，不过在波动幅度上存在很大差异。以1978年作为分界点，对典型事实所作的动态稳定性检验表明，改革后我国经济周期性波动的幅度显著降低了。但是，经济周期的其他大多数典型事实具有时间上的稳定性。

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of economic fluctuation from 1952 to 1999 in China, and provides some important stylized facts. It is argued that China＇ business cycles conform to the general character of the phenomenon. A dynamic stability analysis shows that although some facts change statistically after 1978, they don＇t alter the main qualitative features of the business cycle.