中国财政收入与GDP之间关系的协整分析与误差修正模型研究

Co-integration Study and Error Correction Model Between Fiscal Revenue and GDP in China

文章利用协整理论对1952-2003年中国财政收入与GDP之间的关系进行实证研究，研究表明：（1）中国的财政收入与GDP之间存在Granger因果关系，二者之间存在着相互促进效应；（2）中国财政收入与GDP之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制；（3）中国财政收入对GDP的弹性小于1。

After making an empirical analysis on the fiscal revenue and GDP in China from 1952 to 2003 by means of co-integration tools, authors find that there exists a Granger causality and a distinct mutual promoting effect between the fiscal revenue and GDP in China, and that there is a long term co-integration and short dynamic adjusting mechanism between the fiscal revenue and GDP in China. The study indicates that the elasticity of fiscal revenue on GDP is smaller than 1.