潜在震源区地震年平均发生率确定方法的再探讨

REDISCUSSION ABOUT DETERMINATION METHOD OF ANNUAL MEAN OCCURRENCE RATE OF EARTHQUAKES IN POTENTIAL FOCAL REGION

应用断裂带地震复发条件概率作为潜在震源区空间概率函数来确定潜在震源区地震的年平均发生率，并运用断层分段的结果，依据其给定震级地震的平均复发间隔，计算出了未来５０年地震复发的条件概率。并以南北天山地震带为例进行了计算。结果表明，该方法是可行的，计算结果是适宜的。

Conditional probability of earthquake recurrence of fault zone is used as a spacial probability function of potential focal area to determine the annual mean occurrence rate of earthquake in potential focal region. Than, the section-dividing results of fault and the mean recurrence interval of earthquake with given magnitude are used to calculate the conditional probability of earthquake recurrence in coming 50 years. The above method has been used for calculating the North and South Tianshan earthquake zone. The result shows that the method is feasible and the calculated result is good.