聚类分析在暴雨预报和环流形势分型中的应用

The Applications of Cluster Analysis in Forecasting Heavy Rain Area and Grouping of Circulation Model

数值预报投入业务运行以来，高空形势预报具有较高的准确率，要素预报的准确率也在不断提高，对数值预报产品的释用是近年来人们极为关注的问题。作者利用数值预报５００ｈＰａ高度场及降水实况资料，采用聚类分析法，研究暴雨落区预报和我国暴雨环流形势特征，所得结果在暴雨预报业务中有一定参考价值。

Since Numerical Weather Prediction has been operated,the forecast accuracy of upper synoptic situations and weather elements have been improved.Recently,it is a common concerned question to explain and to apply NWP production for forecaster. Based on cluster analysis,the forecast of heavy rain area and it′s character of circulation pattern have been studied by the use of NWP production 500hPa height fields and precipitation data.Results show that the method has reference value in the operational forecast.Simultaneously the features of circulation field corresponding to precipitation patterns in China are given.