摘要
文章主要运用了单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学方法,利用1994年到2004年的季度数据,对货币供应量、利率这两个重要货币政策变量与GDP之间的关系进行了计量分析,利率对实体经济的影响不显著;不同层次的货币供应量都能对经济产生影响,但它们对GDP的作用效果是有差异的。为提高我国货币政策的效果,实现我国货币政策的目标提出了相关的政策建议。
The paper mainly used the econometrics approaches, such as Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition etc. According to economic quarterly data of 1994 to 2004, the paper process econometrics analysis between policy tools （money supply and interest rate） and GDP, the interest rate is not remarkable the impact on real economy ; The money supply of the different levels can exert an influence on economy , hut they have differences which they act on GDP. In order to improve quantitative effect of monetary policy, the paper put forward some policy suggestion on the monetary policy in China.
出处
《华东经济管理》
2006年第1期47-52,共6页
East China Economic Management
关键词
货币政策
协整检验
格兰杰因果关系检验
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
monetary policy
cointegration test
granger causality
impulse response function
variance decomposition
