广义S增长曲线预测油田含水率

Application of Generalized S-Shape Growth Curve to Forecast Water-Cut of Oilfield

增长曲线的增长过程中,其图形表现为像一条压扁的S形曲线,在油田勘探、开发、生产过程中,很多实际生产数据也呈现出S形的增长趋势。通过对目前普遍采用的6种S增长曲线指标量增长率变化特征分析,推导出能够代表这6种增长曲线的广义S增长模型及其增长曲线,并从此模型特征出发建立了油田含水率预测模型。采用试差法对模型进行求解。通过实例分析表明,提出的广义S增长模型可以用来预测油田含水率,指导水驱油田的开发。

The graph of growth curve in its growth process is normally characterized by an oblate shape like ＂S＂. A lot of field data got from oil exploration, exploitation and production also appear such a S-shape varied tendency. This paper presents the available six types of S-shape, analyzes their growth rate-varied patterns and deduces the generalized S-shape growth models and curves, followed by developing the oilfield water-cut forecast model the represents these six S-shape growth curves and making solutions with trial and error method. Case study indicates that the generalized S-shape growth model proposed in this paper can be applied to forecasting oilfield water-cut, being as a guide for development of water flood oilfields.