季风边缘区封闭湖泊近40a来的水位变化分析——以青海湖、岱海为例

Analysis on Water Level Change of Closed Lakes in Fringe of the East Asian Monsoon Area——A Case Study of Qinghai Lake and Daihai Lake

利用40 a来的数据资料研究揭示了青海湖、岱海的水位变化及其机制.结果表明:青海湖水位变化主要受气候因素影响,如果未来气候保持现在的状态,湖泊的面积将在2035年前后下降至0.392 5 km2后保持相对稳定;岱海水位变化受人类活动的影响,人类活动的强烈干预改变了湖泊的演化方向,如果将人类活动耗水量还原到湖泊中,岱海水位将逐步上升、湖泊面积逐渐扩大,并在水位1.226 5 km、面积175 km2上稳定维持至2030年左右.

According to the records in recent 40 years, the water level changes of Qinghai Lake and Daihai Lake and their mechanism are revealed. The research results show that climate change is the chief cause of water level change on Qinghai Lake. If climate kept on present status in the future, the area of Qinghai Lake should decline to 0. 392 5 万 km^2 in the year of 2035, and then stabilize relatively. At the same time, water level change of Daihai Lake is controlled by human activities, human intervene changes the direction of the lake evolution. Supposed human wastage were to revert to Daihai Lake, water level should ascend continuously, area of lake should be enlarged too. The water level of Daihai Lake should be kept on 1. 226 5 km above sea level,and the area keep on 175 km^2 till the year of 2030.