论国家发展战略的选择——转移、转嫁与转变

Transfer or Transformation—How to Choose National Development Strategy

从全人类和长时期的角度来看,可持续发展是人类社会发展的必然,但在短时期内,特别是在特定的国家和地区范围内,却不一定是必然的。这种必然性的实现依赖于各国政府对国家发展战略的选择。本文在分析先期工业化国家发展路径的基础上,提出了国家发展路径的几种可能情形,论述了发展路径依赖于政府负责任的选择关系,并初步分析了可能的选择空间。最后,论文指出中国的科学发展观是超越了转移、转嫁的发展模式的转变,是对人类社会负责任的符合可持续发展要求的战略选择。

It is widely accepted that sustainable development is inevitably the road of human future. This is true from the view of longtime and whole human social system scale. But it is not necessarily true to the short term and some specific areas. Based on the analysis of the national development path about the developed countries, the paper puts forward some possible national development paths, then states that the achievement of SD depends on how the governments choose the National Development Strategy（NDS）. What the choice possibilities are also is presented. As an example, the paper maintains that China＇s scientific concept of development is surpassing the transfer strategy which has been adopted by the developed countries.