2005年国际金融市场回顾与2006年展望

International Financial Markets: Review and Outlook

2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,股票市场表现不一,债券市场基本上是区间波动走势,外汇市场美元一枝独秀,石油价格冲高回落而黄金的表现也引人注目。决定市场走势的因素是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,同时美国利率持续上升。2006年受房地产市场降温的影响,美国经济可能温和放缓,利率很快见顶,将对金融市场产生重大影响,总体而言风险加大。

Financial markets could be pictured as volatile in 2005. The equity markets appeared different around the world while the bond markets remained range trading, USD appreciated in 2005 and the biggest surprise came from the commodity markets. The main momentum of the markets trends were the US economy overwhelmed the Europe and the Japan, together with its higher interest rate. The key problem of 2006 is the potential risk of the US economy due to the housing market, leading to an imminent halt of the benchmark interest rate. The financial markets will be more date dependant in 2006.