行为控制制度的数学模型与制度强度——疑罪从无制度有效条件分析

The Mathematical Model on Institution of Behavior Control and Strength Level of Institution--Analysis on the Efficient Conditions of the Institution of "Suspected or Innocent"

长期以来,行为控制制度研究的主要领域是政治学、制度经济学、法学、历史学等定性研究领域,而运用数学工具对其进行研究的不多。以管理实践中广泛应用的“疑罪从无”为例,给出了制度的回报概率描述与博弈树描述,制度有效条件的数学模型描述等研究方法。特别是给出了制度有效条件的数学模型,以及制度的观测力度、控制回报差异、自然回报期望值差异,行为成本差异等重要概念,指出在维持制度的有效性的前提下,这些因素之间的制约关系。这些都可以推广应用于各种制度的研究中,为制度研究提供了定量分析与统计观测的新方法。

For a long time, main researching areas of the institution of behavior control are politics, institution economics, law, history etc. But mathematic models are seldom applied. Taking the real application of 'suspected or innocent' in management for example, this paper describes research methods such as the description of the probability of institution rewards, the description of game theory tree and the description of mathematical model of efficient conditions of institution. Especially, the paper presents the mathematical model of the efficient conditions of institution and some important concepts of institution, such as the observation degree, the difference of control repayment, the expected difference of natural repayment, and the difference of behavior costs, and indicates the relationship among these factors on the basis of institution validity. The methods in the paper can be easily used in other institution studies.