中国改革历程中的产出和价格波动:货币所扮演的角色

Output and Price Fluctuations in China’s Reform Years:What Role did Money Play?

中国经济正在其改革历程中经历着经济增长和通货膨胀的周期性波动。关于货币在这些波动中所起的作用，经济学家有着不同的观点。本文运用基于交易方程式的结构化VEC模型，对这些观点进行了探讨。我们发现，在长期，货币对产出和价格的变化做出适应性调整，而并非这些变化的原因。而在短期，价格变动要93因于那些对货币和价格有持久影响而对真实产出没有持久影响的冲击。这些冲击对多数的货币波动负责，并且强烈地影响产出。

The Chinese economy has undergone cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrary views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.