高储蓄真是两难的吗?——与麦金农教授商榷

Is Virtue Really Conflicted?——Comments on McKinnon’s Theory of Conflicted Virtue Syndrome

本文对麦金农的“高储蓄两难综合症”理论提出了质疑。通过分析该理论背后两个关键命题（汇率变动对经常项目的调整无效和本币资产的风险升水为负）的证明中存在的问题。我们得出结论：前一个命题只是一个未被证明的假说；后一个命题则不适用于新兴市场国家（如中国）的情形。据此，我们认为麦金农的“高储蓄两难综合症”理论是有缺陷的，高储蓄未必是两难的，同时麦金农关于“如果人民币升值。中国将很有可能最终陷入通货紧缩螺旋和零利率流动性陷阱”的说法也是不能令人完全信服的。

This paper is to query the validity of McKinnon＇s so called conflicted virtue theory and his view on renminhi exchange rate. By examining the model of open economy and the proposition of negative risk premium in interest rate on domestic assets, which form the foundation of McKinnon＇ s conflicted virtue theory, the paper finds that there are some faults in the former while the latter is not valid for East Asian emerging market economies like China. Based on the findings, this paper argues that generally speaking, there is no such thing as the syndrome of conflicted virtue and it is also questionable that if China appreciates its currency it could sllp into a deflationary slump with a zero interest liquidity trap.