玛纳斯河流域气候变化对径流变化的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Manas River Basin

根据玛纳斯河流域5个基本气象台站建站以来的数据资料,利用1961～2003年的月平均气温、降水量及肯斯瓦特水文站径流量的观测记录,使用数理统计和时间序列方法分析了该流域气温、降水和径流的变化趋势,结果表明:近43年该河流域气温升高显著,且年降水量呈增加趋势,降水量偏多集中在4、5、6三个月.计算玛纳斯河地表径流与气候的相关性,建立二者的回归方程,定量分析该流域气候变化对径流变化的影响,结果得出:当该流域5～9月平均气温增加1℃时,年径流量会增加或减少1.3%;当该流域5～9月气温出现±2℃(或±3℃)的变化时,年径流量会做出±2.68%(或±4.0%)的正响应;当该流域水文年降水量偏多或偏少10%时,年径流量会偏多或偏少1.98%;当水文年降水量偏多或偏少20%(或30%)时,年径流量会做出偏多或偏少3.95%(或5.93%)的正响应.

In this paper,the character of climate change in Mannas River is based on the observed data of monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation collected at 5 basic meteorological stations since the station had been built. We analyzed the trend of air temperature and precipitation variation of climate change by using the data from 1961 to 2003. The result shows that air temperature and precipitation have significantly increased . Air temperature was increasing in winter. Precipitation was increasing in April, May and June. In order to analyze the impacts on the climate change and surface runoff in Manas River basin, the authors collect and process the discharge rate data of KenSiWaT hygrometric station from 1961 to 2003 by using some mathematical statistical methods. The correlation curves of the three variables are constructed. The results indicate that the precipitation and the stream discharge have a good positive correlation in common on situation except in special years. The response feature of hydrological year is more or less 10% （or 20%, or 30% ）than normal, the flow of runoff is more or less 1.98 % （or 3.95 %, or 5.93 % ）. The further study shows that the temperature from May to September and the runoff have a good positive correlation. The annual air temperature is higher or lower 1℃（or 2℃ ,or 3℃）than normal, the flow of runoff is more or less 1.3%（or 2.68% ,or 4.0%）.