南宁各种下垫面温度特征及预报方法探讨

Characteristics and Forecasting of Temperature on Different Underlying Surfaces

介绍下垫面温度观测的原理,并用南宁2002年12月至2003年11月资料,分析了沥青、水泥、泥土温度的特征,包括这3种下垫面的日平均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度、温度日较差特征以及它们与气温的差值。指出气温是影响各种下垫面温度的最主要因素,云对下垫面日最高温度影响显著,大气环流变换对各种下垫面温度的波动有明显影响。对各种下垫面日最高温度的预报方法进行了初步探讨,建立了基于日最高气温预报之上的各种下垫面日最高温度预报模型,并对预报与实况值进行了对比分析,指出提高次日最高气温的预报准确率和预报是否出现阴天有中到大雨天气的预报准确率,可显著改善各种下垫面日最高温度的预报效果。

The principles of temperature observation on different underlying surfaces is described. The temperatures on pitch, cement and clay surfaces from December 2002 to September 2003 were analyzed, including daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range and the differences from air temperature. It is pointed out that air temperature is the main influencing factor for the temperature on various underlying surfaces; clouds have remarkable influence on the daily maximum temperature; the variation of atmosphere circulation affects also obviously the underlying surface temperature. Various forecasting method of temperatures on various underlying surfaces are discussed. The forecasting models of maximum temperature on various underlying surfaces are given, based on the next day＇s maximum air temperature forecast. Through comparing forecasts and actual temperature, it is found out that the forecast accuracy of the underlying surface temperature is depended greatly on the forecast accuracy of next day＇s maximum temperature and weather forecasts （cloudy, overcast or raining）.