北京地区冠心病发病率的气象评估模型

Meteorological Evaluating Models of Coronary Heart Disease Incidence in Beijing Area

基于1984～2000年北京地区自然人群的长期、持续、跟踪监测的旬冠心病发病资料和同期日气象资料,通过分析揭示了冠心病发病率的季节变化规律和年际变化特点;通过发病率和气象因子的相关分析,确定了全年及各季、月可能诱发冠心病发病率的主要气象因子.结果表明,气压、风速、气温和水汽压等因子与发病率关系显著,从各个季节来说,气象因子对发病率的影响又各有侧重并具有不同的表现形式.建立了各代表月冠心病发病率的气象评估模型,历史回代和预测结果表明,所建方程具有较高的评估能力.

By contrasting the series of the incidence of coronary heart diseases from 1984 to 2000 with the corresponding meteorological data in the Beijing area. The seasonal and annual variations of the incidence of coronary heart diseases are revealed. The results of correlation analysis between the incidence of the diseases and several meteorological elements show that there exists obvious correlation between the incidence and such meteorological elements as pressure, wind, temperature and water pressure; the influence of meteorological elements on the diseases varies in different seasons. Thereby, the meteorological evaluating models of the monthly incidence of coronary heart diseases were established and the models have good fitting and predictive capabilities.