滇西北旅游景区气象指数预报方法研究

Forecasting Methods of Meteorological Indexes for Tourism in Northwestern Yunnan Province

依据云南省迪庆州3站40年的观测资料,利用统计检验结果,同时结合天气预报的时间和空间尺度理论,论证了迪庆州各旅游景点的气象指数预报。用最靠近景区的气象观测站所提供的天气预报资料和逐时观测资料作为预报景区指数的基础,同时根据景区的经纬度、海拔高度、植被状况进行订正,最终获取旅游景区的特种气象预报指数。旅游景区的特种气象预报软件开发应用天气学、数值方法等理论和业务技术方法,用Fortran语言和VB语言编程,研制了迪庆州各景区的紫外线指数、舒适指数、着装指数、火险等级、旅游气象指数系统。该系统软件已投入业务运行。

Based on the data obtained from three meteorological stations for 40 years in Diqing, Yunnan Province, a study was conducted on the forecasting methods of meteorological indexes for tourism. In combination with the temporal-and spatial-scale theories of weather systems and the related statistical results, various meteorological indexes are discussed. The specific meteorological indexes were obtained through adjusting longitude, latitude, and vegetation distribution based on the weather forecasts and relative observation data provided by the nearest weather stations. The techniques of synoptic, numerical method and conventional forecasts were applied in software development. The forecasting system of UV index, suitability index, dressing index, fire danger class, and meteorological indexes for tourism was developed by using the FORTRAN and VB computer language. The software has been put into operation.