主要货币汇率走势：2005年逆转2006年继续日前格局

Temdemcu pf key currencies＇exchange rates：Reversing in 2005 and the status quo maintained in 2006

受世界经济形势的急剧变化及西方主要国家货币政策转向的影响,2005年国际外汇市场出现重大转折．美元对非美元主要货币的汇率发生逆转．文章从美日欧经济基本面，利差等因素阐述了这一变化产生的背景。2006年．美国经济有望保持良好的增长态势．欧元可能低位运行，日元可能逐步回稳．并出现小幅升值。

Influenced by dramatic changes in the world economy as well as shifts in monetary policies in key Western countries, the global FX market witnessed a significant changeover in 2005, with the exchange rate of the USD against other key currencies greatly reversed. This paper not only elaborates on its background from the perspective of economic fundamentals in the US, Japan and Europe, and such factors as interest rate gap, but also predicts that in 2006, the US economy is likely to maintain its healthy upward tendency, the euro may move st e low level, and JPY will stabilize gradually followed by a slight appreciation.