Monty Hall Dilemma的困难原因探讨

Causes of Monty Hall Dilemma's Difficulty

采用Monty Hall Dilemma的经典研究范式,探讨了大学生被试在不同提示条件下对MHD问题的解决情况,结果发现只有在条件关系提示下,MHD的作业成绩才得到了明显的改善,但是正确率也只有35.7%。这表明MHD问题困难的原因很可能是多方面的,如认为主持人的行为完全是随机事件,很难意识到参与者的最初选择与主持人打开特定盒子间的三种条件关系;多数被试作出选择的理由是非理性的,如“坚持第一选择,相信自己的直觉”;不能正确判断MHD问题的内在概率关系以及缺乏认真思考的动力等。

This article used the classical model of Monty Hall Dilemma to study undergraduates＇ cognitive process in resolving the problem under several different hints. The results indicated that there was a distinct improvement under the hint of conditional connections but the percentage of correct response was only 35.7 %, which suggested that there were several causes of Monty Hall Dilemma＇s difficulty, such as thinking that Monty＇s behaviour was a stochastic event and not recognizing the three conditional connections between the first choice and Monty＇s behaviour. The cause chosen by most subjects was irrational, for example, insisting on the first choice and believing in one＇s intuition, not estimating correctly the probability of inherent MHD, and lacking motive for considering the problem carefully.