政府公共投资的经济效应分析

An Analysis of Economic Effect of Government Public Investment

关于政府公共投资的经济效应,学术界有颇多争论,虽然一系列研究成果发现公共资本与经济增长正相关,但也有一些学者通过研究得出了截然相反的结论。文章运用经济增长理论分析政府公共投资的经济效应,并以中国相关数据为样本进行实证检验,实证检验得出结果:公共投资与产出正相关。在此基础上,文章根据我国目前所处的经济发展阶段,运用计量经济模型,估计出我国当前政府公共投资的最优规模,即公共投资占GDP的合理比重为4.5%,公共投资占财政总支出的合理比重为22%左右。

Concerning the economic effect of government public investment, there are many disputes in academic circles. A series of research achievements discover that public capital is positively relevant to economic growth. But some scholars have contrary conclusions. This paper uses the theory of economic growth to analyse the economic effect of public investment. Data in China are filled as samples to carry out an empirical test. The following conclusion is drawn in the end. government public investment is positively relevant to output. On this basis, the paper employs an economettic model and presents an innovative estimate of optimum scale of government public investment： the optimal ratio of public investment to GDP should be 4. 5% whereas the optimal ratio of public investment to fiscal ag gragate expenditure should be 220% or so.