基于卡尔曼滤波的目标估计和预测方法研究

Methods for Estimation and Prediction of Maneuverable Target Based on Kalman Filtering

该文主要研究水下高速运动体的运动轨迹的精确估计和预测,为我方舰艇实施反干扰和拦截提供依据。由于目标的高速运动和水下环境的复杂性,使得目标的运动规律难以准确描述,因此一些传统的估计和预测方法难以适用。该文基于卡尔曼滤波给出了一种自适应衰减滤波算法,并建立适当的数学模型,给出相应的滤波方程。该方法的优点是可以利用量测不断地修正预测值,同时修正不确切知道的系统模型参数和噪声统计参数,并且对滤波初值的影响不是很敏感,保证滤波稳定不发散。最后对尾追弹道进行仿真研究,证明该方法可以精确地估计和预测敌方目标的运动轨迹。

Accurate estimation and prediction of track of the high - speed target are mainly studied in this paper. Some information is provided for our naval ships to practise anti -jamming and interception. The movement regulation of the target is hard to be described accurately because of the high speed movement of the target and underwater environmental complexity. Since the conventional estimation and prediction methods aren＇t suitable to the question, an adaptive and attenuation filtering arithmetic based on Kalman filtering is proposed. The mathematical model of a target moving in a plane is established and the corresponding filter equations are given. The advantage of the method is that the estimate value can be revised constantly, and the indefinite system model parameter and yawp statistical parameter can also be revised at the same time. It is not very sensitive to the influence of the filtering initial value. Simulation results of trail trajectory show that it can accurately estimate and predict the movement track of the enemy target.