布雷顿森林体系Ⅱ:博弈均衡与中国的困境

The Equilibrium in Bretton Woods System Ⅱ's Game and China's Dilemmas

如果把人民币汇率问题纳入“新布雷顿森林体系”的分析框架,通过分析“新布雷顿森林体系”的运行机制和其中的各方博弈,所能够得出的短期均衡结果是,美国继续进口亚洲商品,亚洲国家对美融资以保持美国国内旺盛的消费需求。但从长期来看,新布雷顿森林体系由于自身存在的制度性缺陷,最终会导致亚洲国家组建的对美融资“卡特尔”走向分裂。中国在这个卡塔尔与其破裂的预期中,面临三重困境需要突破。

In this paper we discuss the RMB exchange rate issue in the framework of ＂New Bretton Woods System＂ by analyzing operation mechanism and game between each player. We come to a short - term equilibrium result： America continues to import from Asia and Asian countries finance US to ensure its vigorous domestic consuming demands. But in the long run, due to institutional defects of ＂New Bretton Woods System＂, the ＂Cartel＂ formed by Asian countries to finance US will be disintegrated. At last we analysis the Tri - dilemma China facing under the ＂New Bretton Woods System＂.