城镇失业人口省际差异及其与城市化耦合分析

ANALYSIS ON PROVINCIAL DISPARITIES OF THE UNEMPLOYED POPULATION AND COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IT AND URBANIZATION

城镇失业人口已成为我国全球化进程所面临的最紧迫、最严重问题之一。根据1988—2003年统计年鉴,对我国城镇失业人口省际差异进行深入分析与探讨,并研究其与城市化的耦合关系。结果表明:①从纵向角度分析,城镇失业人口数变化与增长的省区差异具有一定集聚现象;②从横向角度分析,城镇失业人口空间分布呈“四区、一带”凝聚,这与纵向分析的分布地带具有高度一致性,可认为我国城镇失业人口省际差异表现为“四区、一带”格局;城镇失业人口和城市化的耦合系数与城市化水平呈正相关关系,城市水平提高,耦合系数增加,两者耦合水平则减少,当城市化达到完成阶段,两者耦合关系减至最低。最后提出当前我国城市化水平低情况下,提高城市化水平成为解决城镇失业人口的有效途径之一。

The unemployed population in cities and towns has been a serious and critical problem for our country. The provincial disparities of the unemployed population in cities and towns are analyzed on the basis of the data in statistical yearbook from 1988 to 2003. What＇s more, the coupling relationship between unemployed population and urbanization is also analyzed with the aim to comprehend the change mechanism and ntles between them. The result shows that, in the view of time the provincial disparities about the rate of variation and the range of increase have the, characteristic gathering in some provinces. Secondly, in the view of space, the spatial distribution of unemployed population has the characteristic gathering among the scope which can be described as ＂four regions and one belt＂ and the gathering scope couple with the regions considered in the view of time roughly. So the provincial disparities of unemployed population can be summarized as ＂four regions and one belt＂. Thirdly, the coupling relationship between unemployed population and urbanization has showed that the coupling coefficient increases while the urbanized level improves and the coupling level of them decrease. Once the urbanization achieves the completed stage, the coupling level between unemployed population and urbanization will deerease to the lowest level. Final, this paper put forward that to improve the urbanization level is one of the effective ways to solve the problem of unemployed population.