山东省艾滋病高危人群规模估计及疫情预测

Estimation on Scale of HIV AIDS High Risk Population and Prediction on Epidemic Situation in Shandong Province

[目的]估计山东省艾滋病各类高危人群的规模，预测艾滋病病毒（HIV）感染者人数，为艾滋病防治工作提供依据。[方法]依据山东省艾滋病病例报告、哨点监测、艾滋病专题调查等获得的数据，参考有关资料，运用Workbook估计法，估计山东省各市艾滋病高危人群基数，预测艾滋病疫情。[结果]估计山东省现有HIV高危险人群1023770～1864181人；预测山东省现有艾滋病感染者7077人。[结论]山东省目前仍处于艾滋病低流行状态，但流行形势并不乐观。

[Objective]To estimate scale of HIV/AIDS high risk populations in Shandong Province,predict the number of HIV cases and provide data for HIV/AIDS control and prevention. [Methods]In accordance with data from HIV/AIDS case reports,surveillance sentinels and HIV/AIDS investigations and in reference to data from other provinces,the estimation method of Workbook was used to estimate the base of HIV/AIDS high risk populations of Shandong Province and predict epidemic situations. [Results]It was estimated that there were 7 077 HIV cases in Shandong Province. [Conclusion] HIV/AIDS is still in a low prevalence state, but the epidemic situation is far from optimistic.