中国铁矿石需求预测系统动力学模型研究

System Dynamics Model for forecasting China's Iron Ore Demand

钢铁工业为我国国民经济各部门提供原材料,是我国经济发展的物质基础。铁矿石是钢铁生产最主要的原料,铁矿石资源供给不足一直是制约我国钢铁工业发展的“瓶颈”。运用系统动力学方法建立了中国铁矿石需求预测系统动力学模型,预测了在不同国民经济发展速度下未来数年我国的铁矿石需求量,到2010年,我国将大约需要铁矿石72 533.5万t。最后,分析了影响铁矿石需求的相关因素,得出结论:最近几年里我国铁矿石需求一直呈稳步上升趋势;铁矿石的需求和我国国民经济的发展息息相关。

Iron and steel industry provides raw materials for various sectors of national economy and thus is the material basis of Chinas economy development. Iron ore is the most important raw material of iron and steel production. Insufficient supply of iron resource has been the bottle - neck limiting the development of domestic iron and steel industry. System dynamics model for forecasting the demand of China＇s iron ore was established and used to forecast the domestic iron ore demand in the future few years at different development speeds of national economy. By the year of 2010, China will need about 725. 335 million t iron ore. Finally, the factors affecting the demand on iron ore are analyzed and it is concluded that （ 1 ） China＇s iron demand in the future few years will be in a steady rising state; （2） the demand on iron ore is closely related to China＇s national economy.