均衡汇率理论和政策的新框架被引量：81

Theory and Policy of Equilibrium Exchange: A New Analytic Framework

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摘要本文从汇率的基本功能出发,以物价水平(P)和汇价水平(e)为自变量,建立了有关汇率和经济增长相互关系的分析框架。认为汇率是一个杠杆,均衡汇率是在名义或实际国民收入增长基础上的内部均衡和外部均衡同时实现所对应的那个汇率区间,即均衡汇率可以是多重的,而不是唯一的。提出劳动生产率的增长是人民币汇率升值的动力,而实际国民收入的增长和经济的强大是在汇率升值过程中实现的。以此为基础,本文提出了未来相当长一段时间中人民币汇率政策的理论基础和操作方向。 A new framework is built up to analyze the relationship between exchange rate policy and economic growth in this article, starting from the basic functions of the exchange rate and taking price level (p) and exchange rate level (e) as two variables. The author puts forward new views on the definition of the exchange rate and the equilibrium exchange rate. The exchange rate is, according to the author, a macro-economic adjustment instrument; and equilibrium exchange rate refers to the section on the EB=IB curve where the internal and external economic equilibrium and growth are realized simultaneously, on the basis of increased nominal or real national income. In other words, equilibrium exchange rate is not a single point on the EB=IB curve . The rise of the RMB exchange rate is driven by the growth of productivity; and increases in real national income and economic growth are realized with the rise of exchange rate. The theoretical foundation and operational trend of the RMB exchange rate in the long run are discussed in the article.

作者姜波克

机构地区复旦大学经济学院

出处《中国社会科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第1期15-22,共8页 Social Sciences in China

基金教育部长江学者特聘教授奖励基金及211项目二期资助

关键词汇率均衡汇率经济增长

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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参考文献13

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