我国粮食生产的波动性及其影响因素分析

Analysis on Fluctuation and Influence Factors of Grain Production in China

本文利用波动指数测算了我国粮食生产的波动周期和波动幅度,并从自然波动和经济波动两个方面,描述了其波动特征。1978—2002年间,粮食经济波动引起的粮食生产下降的幅度高于自然波动引起粮食生产下降的幅度。文章还进一步分析了农业投入、宏观经济政策、自然灾害和粮食流通对粮食生产波动的影响。

This article uses fluctuant index to measure fluctuating cycle and range of grain production in China, and describes the characteristic of grain production fluctuation from the angle of nature fluctuation and economy fluctuation. The decreasing range of grain production resulting by economy fluctuation is higher than by nature fluctuation during 1978--2002. The article also analyse the influences of agriculture inputment, macroeconomic policy, natural disaster and grain distribution on grain production fluctuation in China.