粮食安全预警系统研究——以徐州为例

Study on Early Warnning System of Food Security in Xuzhou City

预警是明确警情、寻找警源、分析警兆、预报警度和排警决策的过程。以区域粮食总供求比率等为警情指标,建立了粮食安全预警指标体系。采用目标预警系数的方法,同时考虑人均粮食占有量作为约束条件,确定预警系统警度。并以徐州市为例,进行粮食安全预警实证分析,得出徐州市2010年的粮食安全预警将呈现出短缺轻警警情。运用土地复垦等手段保持耕地总量动态平衡,改造中低产田,改良土壤结构,提高土地肥力,加大投入力度,培育优良品种是排除徐州粮食安全警情的主要对策。

Early warning was the course of defining alert, looking for the alert source, analysing alertness, determining alert degree, and absolving the alert. In this text, the regional total supply and demand rate of grain was introduced as the index of alert,and the index system of the food security early warning system was established. Using the goal early warning coefficient,considering per capita occupancy of grain as the restraining condition, to determine the early warning alert degree of the system. Taking Xuzhou city for instance, the results showed that the light alert of food shortage would be appear in 2010 year in Xuzhou city. The main countermeasure to get rid of safe alert was to keep dynamic balance of total cultivated land by using reclamation of land, transforming the middle-and-low-yielding fields, improving soil structure and fertility, increasing investment and depending on science and technology.