1990-2004年我国国际收支经常项目发展趋势分析

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND OF CURRENT ACCOUNT OF CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS FROM 1990 TO 2004

对1990-2004年我国国际收支经常项目和其中的货物、服务、经常转移项目的收支状况分别作了简要分析,并根据历史数据预测了2005年各项的收支情况。接着,作者从储蓄、经济发展模式、人民币汇率等角度探讨了我国经常项目变动的主要原因。最后,文章从财政与货币政策的搭配、支出转换政策与支出增减政策的搭配、服务行业竞争力等方面提出了我国应对经常项目变动的对策建议。

This article analyzes the preaent situation and the development of current account of China＇ s international payments, including goods, services and current transfer, from 1990 to 2004. Based on the historical statistical data, the author predicts the payments of 2005 and analyzes the main reasons for the fluctuations in the items of saving, economic development model and exchange rate of RMB. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the match of financial policy and monetary policy, the match of payout conversion policy and the payout increase and reduction policy, and the capacity for service competition.